PAUL PREDICTS THE 2021 OSCAR WINNERS

Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Chloe Zhao’s film, Nomadland, has dominated award season with its intimate look at van dwellers, what led them to that simple lifestyle, and the rich and beautiful landscape of the American west. Zhao wrote, directed, edited, and produced the film and will likely go home a multiple winner Oscar night. This will also mark Frances McDormand’s third Oscar win as she produces the film as well as stars in it.

WILL WIN: Nomadland
SHOULD WIN: Nomadland

Best Directing
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

I would be very surprised if Chloe Zhao doesn’t win this. She will be the second woman to win Best Director following Kathryn Bigelow in the history of the Oscars. Zhao already won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and the Director’s Guild Award so far this season.

WILL WIN: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
SHOULD WIN: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

This will be the race to watch come Oscar night as there really isn’t a frontrunner. Andra Day won the Golden Globe, Carey Mulligan won the Critics Choice, Viola Davis won the SAG, and Frances McDormand won the BAFTA. We haven’t seen an acting race this spread out in years, which makes the opening of the envelope even more exciting.

WILL WIN: Viola Davis, I’m giving her the slight edge given the number of crossover voters who vote for the SAG Awards and are members of the Academy’s voting branch.
SHOULD WIN: Carey Mulligan. This would Mulligan’s first Oscar and gives a rich and complex portrayal of a deeply fractured woman seeking revenge.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari

Chadwick Boseman is the sentimental favorite given his recent passing and a short career full of empowering performances. He gives over every part of himself in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. All that being said, I wouldn’t call this race closed just yet, as there is a lot of love for Anthony Hopkins for his portrayal in the stage to screen adaptation of The Father. His embodiment of someone losing his battle with Alzheimer’s is one of nuance, precision, and showcases how he’s one of the all-time acting greats.

WILL WIN: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
SHOULD WIN: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

The Best Supporting Actress race is another one worth keeping an eye on as there is no projected winner yet. Despite this being the eighth nomination for Glenn Close, I don’t see her going home a winner given the poor reviews for her film Hillbilly Elegy. This race has come down to newcomer Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and Yuh-Jung Youn for Minari. It is rare to see the Academy acknowledge comedy performances, so the nomination for Bakalova is huge. The Hungarian actress was unknown to many but proved she could hold her own next to Sacha Baron Cohen and even Rudy Giuliani in the Borat sequel. Youn has won the SAG and BAFTA Award for playing the funny, pulls no punches grandma in Minari. It’s a heartbreaking role and one that sits with you if you’ve seen Minari. The actress has had a decades long career in Korea and now getting the recognition she deserves.

WILL WIN: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
SHOULD WIN: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami…
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

This is the race that is the easiest to call as Daniel Kaluuya has won every award so far for his staggering portrayal of Chairman Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah. He is a force in a film that feels so relevant to today’s fight for equality.

WILL WIN: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
SHOULD WIN: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Best Original Screenplay
Will Berson & Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Darius Marder & Abraham Marder, Sound of Metal
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

WILL WIN: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
SHOULD WIN: Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

Best Adapted Screenplay
Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami…
Ramin Bahrani, The White Tiger

WILL WIN: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
SHOULD WIN: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland

Best Cinematography
Sean Bobbitt, Judas and the Black Messiah
Erik Messerschmidt, Mank
Dariusz Wolski, News of the World
Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
Phedon Papamichael, The Trial of the Chicago 7

WILL WIN: Joshua James Richards, Nomadland
SHOULD WIN: Joshua James Richards, Nomadland

Best Film Editing
Yorgos Lamprinos, The Father
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Frédéric Thoraval, Promising Young Woman
Mikkel E. G. Nielsen, Sound of Metal
Alan Baumgarten, The Trial of the Chicago 7

WILL WIN: Mikkel E. G. Nielsen, Sound of Metal
SHOULD WIN: Mikkel E. G. Nielsen, Sound of Metal

Best Animated Feature Film
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers

WILL WIN: Soul
COULD WIN: Wolfwalkers

Best Animated Short Film
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera
Yes-People

WILL WIN: If Anything Happens I Love You
COULD WIN: Burrow

Best Live-Action Short Film
Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye

WILL WIN: Two Distant Strangers
COULD WIN: The Letter Room

Best International Feature Film
Another Round
Better Days
Collective
The Man Who Sold His Skin
Quo Vadis, Aida?

WILL WIN: Another Round
COULD WIN: Quo Vadis, Aida?

Best Documentary Feature
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time

WILL WIN: Crip Camp
COULD WIN: My Octopus Teacher

Best Documentary Short Subject
Colette
A Concerto Is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha

WILL WIN: A Love Song for Latasha
COULD WIN: A Concerto Is a Conversation

Best Original Score
Terence Blanchard, Da 5 Bloods
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank
Emile Mosseri, Minari
James Newton Howard, News of the World
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste, Soul

WILL WIN: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste, Soul
SHOULD WIN: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste, Soul

Best Original Song
“Fight For You,” Judas and the Black Messiah
“Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7
“Husavik,” Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Io Si (Seen),” The Life Ahead
“Speak Now,” One Night in Miami…

WILL WIN: “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami…
SHOULD WIN: “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami…

Best Sound
Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman, Greyhound
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin, Mank
Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett, News of the World
Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker, Soul
Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh, Sound of Metal

WILL WIN: Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh, Sound of Metal
SHOULD WIN: Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh, Sound of Metal

Best Costume Design
Alexandra Byrne, Emma
Ann Roth, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Trish Summerville, Mank
Bina Daigeler, Mulan
Massimo Cantini Parrini, Pinocchio

WILL WIN: Ann Roth, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
SHOULD WIN: Ann Roth, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze, Emma
Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney, Hillbilly Elegy
Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff, Mank
Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti, Pinocchio

WILL WIN: Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
SHOULD WIN: Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Production Design
Peter Francis, Cathy Featherstone, The Father
Mark Ricker, Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale, Mank
David Crank, Elizabeth Keenan, News of the World
Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas, Tenet

WILL WIN: Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale, Mank
SHOULD WIN: Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale, Mank

Best Visual Effects
Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox, Love and Monsters
Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins, The Midnight Sky
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram, Mulan
Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez, The One and Only Ivan
Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher, Tenet

WILL WIN: Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher, Tenet
SHOULD WIN: Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher, Tenet

There you go! All of my predictions with some rationale for a few of the categories. I’d love to hear your hot takes. Who do you predict will go home a winner on Oscar night? Will Nomadland do a big sweep? Will Mank go home with only one award despite it being the most nominated film? Who will be the surprising wins of the night? Leave a comment on Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter with your Oscar predictions!