PAUL PREDICTS THE OSCAR WINNERS (Some of them…)

It’s been quite the year when it comes to Oscars 2019. It think it’s going to go down in the books as the most controversial, disastrous, and unpredictable lead up to the big night. The Academy has had to back track on many decisions in terms of their telecast and their desperate ploy to cut the run time down to three hours. No need to get into all of those bumpy bricks in the road at this point. Let’s focus in on eight of the categories. Here are my predictions of who will win on Sunday and who could be the surprise winner of the night.

BEST PICTURE

“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
“Vice”

The toughest category to predict this year is Best Picture as there is really no clear front-runner like we’ve seen in years past. When you look back at different awards guilds and ceremonies from this past season, their top prize has always gone to a different film. The Golden Globes named Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody as Best Picture. The SAG Awards named Black Panther as Best Acting Ensemble and the Producers Guild named Green Book as their pick. Green Book has representation issues, which has been noted by the industry. Another factor going into the night is the preferential voting system which can always shake things up a bit. I pick Netflix’s Roma to win given its universal love from actors, directors, and producers.

WILL WIN: Roma

COULD WIN: Green Book

BEST DIRECTOR

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

Roma is poised to take home a haul of Oscars on Sunday. It’s a deeply personal piece for director Alfonso Cuarón. He may have won the Best Director Oscar a couple of years ago for Gravity, but he could easily win again for Roma. I personally think Spike Lee should win this hands down as BlacKkKlansman would not be what it is without Lee’s distinct vision.

WILL WIN: Alfonso Cuarón

COULD WIN: Spike Lee

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

The Academy loves when actors play real people, so I think this category comes down to Christian Bale and Rami Malek. Transformation roles always get more attention that an actor that has to build a character from the ground up like Bradley Cooper. Malek won the SAG Award over Bale and seems to be lauded for carrying the extremely flawed Bohemian Rhapsody and making it compelling.

WILL WIN: Rami Malek

COULD WIN: Christian Bale

BEST ACTRESS

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Lady Gaga’s heavy campaigning and a wickedly brilliant performance by Olivia Colman may have worked in other years. What stands in their way is crowd favorite and “lifetime achievement recipient” Glenn Close. It’s her Susan Lucci year after seven nominations.

WILL WIN: Glenn Close

COULD WIN: No one. This is all Glenn Close.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Mahershala Ali has won every major award ceremony up to date for his role as Don Shirley in Green Book. He gives a winning performance in the film, but he just won this very category two years ago for Moonlight. If there’s any upset, surprise win for the night, I could see Richard E. Grant winning for Can You Ever Forgive Me? He’s been doing the campaign trail correctly as he’s soaking up the fun with various tweets along the journey. He’s an actor who loves the business and appreciates all the accolades he’s been long overdue for.

WILL WIN: Mahershala Ali

COULD WIN: Richard E. Grant

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Three time Emmy winner Regina King has been the talk of award season whether it’s for television work or her film career. She won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice for If Beale Street Could Talk. I don’t think her lack of a SAG nomination will hurt her here, as she’s another industry favorite.

WILL WIN: Regina King

COULD WIN: Rachel Weisz. Don’t count out previous winner Weisz for her juicy turn in The Favourite.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Paul Shrader, First Reformed
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly , Green Book
Alfonso Cuarón , Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

Green Book has won a few awards so far for it’s screenplay, but I’m thinking the team behind The Favourite could sneak ahead given it’s creative take on a period picture about Queen Anne. There’s also Paul Shrader’s First Reformed which many people thought would get more nominations this year.

WILL WIN: The Favourite

COULD WIN: Green Book

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Joel Coen , Ethan Coen , The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee , BlacKkKlansman
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty , Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters , A Star is Born

If BlacKkKlansman wins any award this year, it’s safest bet would be for Adapted Screenplay, which was co-written by director Spike Lee based on Ron Stallworth’s memoir. I think the industry is excited to finally award Lee even if it’s just for this category.

WILL WIN: BlacKkKlansman

COULD WIN: If Beale Street Could Talk